Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce44…3e6a world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$9
other 18% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 0% -10.9%
all 36 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage456d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $114 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $38 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $6 −$2 -29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $23 −$6 -27%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $43 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 08 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 26 $3 $0 +4%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by Friday? Apr 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $38 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $12 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $35 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $34 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $31 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $16 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $19 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $25 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $10 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $39 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $26 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $11 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records