Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xce41…4892 crypto 1089 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-3%) realized −$226 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%336W / 855L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day64.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,155
7 days−$1,138
14 days−$1,138
30 days−$1,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 -37.2% -43.2% 30% 24% -52.6%
≤30d 1191 -14.8% -22.9% 28% 24% -22.0%
≤90d 1191 -14.8% -22.9% 28% 24% -22.0%
all 1191 -14.8% -22.9% 28% 24% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 24% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 19% -29.5%
15% -37.0% 6% -36.3%
20% -43.2% 5% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses336 / 855
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1191 / 1089
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day64.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 47¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 247 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.27 · official $7.55 · 3500 history records