trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke in 2025? | Aug 12 | $69,011 | +$4,220 | +6% |
| Israel military action against Iran in July? | Aug 04 | $3,209 | +$720 | +22% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Jul 21 | $6,900 | −$2,700 | -39% |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? | Jul 07 | $6 | +$17 | +285% |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Monday? | Jul 07 | $5,562 | +$4,200 | +76% |
| Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? | Jul 03 | $38,420 | +$452 | +1% |
| Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? | Jul 01 | $15,400 | +$4,600 | +30% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Jul 01 | $40,352 | +$7,803 | +19% |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Jul 01 | $184,442 | +$41,178 | +22% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 25? | Jun 26 | $14,353 | +$3,126 | +22% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 22? | Jun 25 | $117,303 | +$1,719 | +2% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | Jun 24 | $37,043 | −$17,298 | -47% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 23? | Jun 24 | $16,920 | +$713 | +4% |
| Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? | Jun 23 | $40,661 | +$7,893 | +19% |
| US military action against Iran before July? | Jun 22 | $173,740 | +$67,954 | +39% |
| US military action against Iran before August? | Jun 22 | $27,237 | +$17,702 | +65% |
| US military action against Iran by Sunday? | Jun 21 | $22,638 | +$8,797 | +39% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 21? | Jun 21 | $1,000 | +$11 | +1% |
| Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday? | Jun 21 | $16,366 | +$356 | +2% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 20? | Jun 20 | $14,316 | +$939 | +7% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 19? | Jun 20 | $11,962 | +$478 | +4% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 18? | Jun 18 | $14,960 | +$285 | +2% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 17? | Jun 18 | $5,000 | +$54 | +1% |
| Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | Jun 13 | $4 | +$2 | +59% |
| Israel military action against Iran before July? | Jun 13 | $18,437 | +$64,945 | +352% |
| Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | Jun 13 | $19,606 | +$90,941 | +464% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | Jun 10 | $25,868 | −$2,704 | -10% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? | Jun 09 | $5,200 | −$3,280 | -63% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $6,600 | +$585 | +9% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Jun 01 | $3,200 | +$839 | +26% |
| Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? | Jun 01 | $2,090 | +$14 | +1% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? | Jun 01 | $14,285 | +$637 | +4% |
| Thunder vs. Timberwolves | May 27 | $3,500 | +$2,370 | +68% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 33 | +45.2% | +31.4% | 88% | 48% | +19.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +31.4% | 48% | +19.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +18.8% | 39% | +7.6% |
| 15% | +7.3% | 27% | -2.8% |
| 20% | -3.2% | 21% | -12.3% |