Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xce3f…1d1d world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% $0
other 19% $0
politics 5% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 26 +0.2% -9.3% 62% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage471d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $109 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $2 $0 +25%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 04 $14 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 +$1 +5%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -43%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $33 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $20 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $13 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $17 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $6 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $31 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $2 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $30 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $27 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $26 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $26 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records