Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce3e…7fbf crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$6
sports 13% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 42% -15.1%
≤30d 40 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 42% -15.1%
≤90d 40 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 42% -15.1%
all 40 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 42% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 42% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 25% -23.2%
15% -30.8% 8% -30.6%
20% -37.6% 2% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 −$24 -80%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$29 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$15 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -69%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$9 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $13 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 9m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $6 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records