Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xce3c…cc54 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$6
other 5% +$5
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -8.7%
all 31 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 10% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 10% -8.0%
10% -15.6% 3% -16.8%
15% -23.8% 3% -24.9%
20% -31.3% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.8 per $1 lost it wins $9.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage458d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $53 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $22 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $52 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $53 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $24 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $20 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $54 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $10 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $40 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $18 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $30 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $47 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $48 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records