Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce3b…4e05 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 44L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$22
politics 20% $0
other 19% −$3
sports 8% −$7
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 17% -5.2%
≤30d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 8% -7.7%
≤90d 72 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 4% -8.8%
all 81 -3.9% -13.0% 46% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.1%
10% -21.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -29.0% 2% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)81 / 86
History coverage526d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $28 +$11 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $59 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $60 $0 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $86 +$9 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $126 +$2 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $49 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 -10%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $80 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $86 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $131 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 11 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $52 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.43 · official $56.17 · 345 history records