Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce3a…c2d5 world 25 markets active 22h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 35% +$6
tech 8% $0
crypto 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 25 +9.0% -1.4% 60% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 8% -8.1%
10% -10.8% 4% -16.9%
15% -19.4% 4% -25.0%
20% -27.3% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage396d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $33 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 −$2 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $3 +$7 +224%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 03 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 29 $23 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $21 +$1 +4%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $102K on May 23? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 19 $1 $0 -16%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening wee May 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 18 $24 $0 +1%
Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $34 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $35 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $35 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $33 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $18 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $35 6d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $2 346d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 346d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 346d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 346d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 346d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records