Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce3a…47e9 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 65L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$13
world 34% −$12
sports 19% −$2
politics 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 27 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 36 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 6% -9.7%
all 92 -2.8% -12.1% 29% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage430d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $108 −$5 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $137 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $156 −$5 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $298 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $155 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $78 +$4 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $456 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $157 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $172 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $296 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $157 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $147 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $15 +$6 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $142 −$4 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $158 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $144 −$9 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $11 −$2 -18%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,045 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $950 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $949 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $941 +$10 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $20 +$4 +21%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $958 −$23 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $8 −$5 -61%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 02 $2 −$1 -76%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $134 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $67 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $107 25h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $64 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $104 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $108 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $104 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $120 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $102 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $104 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $66 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $72 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $137 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $151 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $156 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.45 · official $133.65 (match) · 323 history records