Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce3a…ba8d other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,354 (-1%) realized −$1,354 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,515per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$14
14 days−$19
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,546
politics 41% −$101
sports 7% +$269
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -6.2% -15.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 82 -4.3% -13.5% 6% 1% -9.8%
all 137 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 13% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 13% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 12% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 11% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,905) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$24 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,515
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $7,552 −$8 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 23 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $340 +$1 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,333 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,801 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,004 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $966 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $521 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,710 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,788 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,905 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $733 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $4,670 −$5 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,960 −$4 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $55 +$29 +52%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $3,224 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,480 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,863 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,381 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,388 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $581 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $582 4h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $673 9h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $674 10h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $545 25h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $545 27h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $643 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $644 2d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $567 3d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $568 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $473 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $474 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $684 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $685 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $857 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $732 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $733 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $855 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $857 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $839 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $840 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $340 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 500 history records