Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce39…f482 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$543 (+3%) realized +$567 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days+$401
14 days+$401
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$128
sports 16% +$49
crypto 7% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -29.8% -36.5% 43% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 35 -29.8% -36.5% 43% 20% -7.3%
≤90d 35 -29.8% -36.5% 43% 20% -7.3%
all 35 -29.8% -36.5% 43% 20% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 20% -7.3%
10% -42.6% 14% -16.2%
15% -48.1% 11% -24.3%
20% -53.2% 9% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$904) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$83 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized+$567
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions7
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,345 +$239 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,059 −$519 -49%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $691 +$171 +25%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $170 −$133 -78%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $753 +$74 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $751 +$7 +1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$35 +115%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,398 +$101 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,289 +$108 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,098 +$191 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $174 −$67 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,153 +$12 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,076 +$77 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$110 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,060 +$126 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$97 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $825 +$554 +67%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$27 -87%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $263 −$259 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $904 +$55 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 −$3 -19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $118 −$117 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $712 +$295 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 35m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 35m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 43m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $167 44m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $65 44m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $25 44m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 45m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 45m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 45m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 46m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $75 46m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 46m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 47m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 47m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $145 48m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $504 48m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 48m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $484 48m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $382 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $45 51m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 51m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 52m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 52m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 54m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $110 54m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 55m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $42 55m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.93 · official $474.19 (match) · 192 history records