Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce39…e095 other 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-12%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%18W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days−$162
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$114
sports 31% +$103
crypto 12% −$43
world 7% −$42
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -37.4% -43.4% 9% 9% -47.7%
≤30d 65 -10.3% -18.9% 18% 17% -14.7%
≤90d 72 -11.2% -19.6% 21% 18% -15.7%
all 79 -11.7% -20.1% 23% 19% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 19% -20.6%
10% -27.7% 18% -28.2%
15% -34.7% 18% -35.1%
20% -41.1% 16% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses18 / 61
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 93
History coverage194d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $3 +$38 +1232%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $3 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 −$6 -44%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Petar Musa: 2+ goals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $46 −$26 -58%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $61 −$42 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 +$34 +134%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $3 $0 -11%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $3 −$1 -23%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -35%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $3 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $3 $0 -12%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 24 $7 −$2 -25%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $5 −$1 -25%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $7 −$1 -17%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +134%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain BUY 4¢ $7 24m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? SELL Yes 96¢ $41 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $7 10h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Tunisia BUY 4¢ $7 10h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2. BUY 17¢ $5 10h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2. BUY 46¢ $5 10h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2. BUY 23¢ $10 28h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will South Africa vs. Kor BUY 27¢ $3 28h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 35¢ $5 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY 17¢ $4 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY 10¢ $4 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL 9¢ $8 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY 12¢ $10 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 29h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL 93¢ $60 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Moro BUY 8¢ $15 31h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY 39¢ $26 31h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 31h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) SELL Morocco 17¢ $2 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $6.79 · 196 history records