Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CE 0xce31…fc65 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$950 (-35%) realized −$953 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$171
14 days+$171
30 days−$854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$282
sports 40% −$646
world 2% −$50
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +24.0% +12.2% 55% 55% +19.2%
≤30d 36 +7.6% -2.6% 47% 47% -52.9%
≤90d 52 +9.4% -1.0% 48% 48% -45.0%
all 52 +9.4% -1.0% 48% 48% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 48% -45.0%
10% -10.5% 48% -50.3%
15% -19.2% 42% -55.1%
20% -27.1% 35% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$65 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$953
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage64d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+211%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$64 +602%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$14 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$18 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$12 +56%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$21 +102%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$11 +51%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$28 +131%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$26 +49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 +$18 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 +$108 +204%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $814 −$814 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 31 $84 −$84 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 31 $74 −$74 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $21 +$21 +102%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $21 −$5 -24%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 24 $21 +$20 +93%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $18 +$47 +261%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $27 +$12 +43%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $21 +$19 +91%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $53 +$49 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $20 +$85 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 37h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $52 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $107 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 55¢ $11 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $137 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $53 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.96 · official $156.92 (match) · 115 history records