Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CE 0xce31…bd1c other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$374 (+6%) realized +$375 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$341
world 27% −$45
politics 15% −$33
other 9% +$83
sports 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.7% +11.0% 60% 60% -0.2%
≤30d 15 +22.7% +11.0% 60% 60% -0.2%
≤90d 15 +22.7% +11.0% 60% 60% -0.2%
all 25 +14.0% +3.1% 56% 48% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 48% -3.7%
10% -6.7% 40% -12.9%
15% -15.7% 36% -21.3%
20% -24.0% 28% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$29 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$375
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage150d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $176 $175 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 +$75 +72%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $63 +$41 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$8 +34%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 +$16 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +242%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$8 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$14 +110%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 +$3 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$19 +109%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$14 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 06 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $1,066 +$10 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $883 −$33 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 06 $845 −$48 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 29 $399 +$226 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $433 −$16 -4%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 29 $499 −$41 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $793 +$146 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $223 +$101 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $179 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $104 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 59¢ $63 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 42¢ $33 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $33 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 33¢ $54 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $54 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $14 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $24 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 131d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.54 · official $174.54 (match) · 81 history records