Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce30…b882 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+5%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$30
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$8
economics 16% $0
crypto 12% −$7
politics 8% −$3
sports 6% +$3
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +54.0% +39.4% 67% 67% +15.5%
≤30d 16 +34.6% +21.8% 62% 62% +12.9%
≤90d 18 +19.7% +8.3% 56% 56% +4.6%
all 44 +4.4% -5.5% 55% 50% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 50% -8.4%
10% -14.5% 41% -17.2%
15% -22.8% 39% -25.2%
20% -30.4% 30% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)44 / 55
History coverage597d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 −$20 -57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $14 $0 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 +$20 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 +$6 +206%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 21 $4 +$4 +96%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 19 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 04 $3 +$2 +54%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 04 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Dec 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 16 $2 +$6 +247%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 16 $3 $0 +9%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Dec 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 03 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Nov 26 $5 +$7 +143%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 25 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 10 $5 +$9 +171%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Nov 05 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by Sunday? Dec 09 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 06 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 05 $18 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Joe Biden impeached before 2024 election? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 54m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 54m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 54m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 58m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 59m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 75¢ $14 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $14 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 42¢ $5 17h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $5 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 38¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.98 · official $138.93 (match) · 91 history records