Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce2f…b499 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$156 (-15%) realized −$152 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$59
other 27% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -13.5% -21.7% 35% 35% -25.4%
≤30d 34 -13.5% -21.7% 35% 35% -25.4%
≤90d 34 -13.5% -21.7% 35% 35% -25.4%
all 34 -13.5% -21.7% 35% 35% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 35% -25.4%
10% -29.2% 35% -32.5%
15% -36.1% 32% -39.0%
20% -42.3% 32% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 44¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$4 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$12 -12%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $10 +$16 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 −$51 -84%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -37%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$57 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$28 +111%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +185%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$12 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$48 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 52m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $47 53m
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 32¢ $90 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $102 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 100¢ $26 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $31 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $1 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $10 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 5h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $41 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $24 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $32 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.65 · official $112.71 · 63 history records