Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce2f…d648 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,620 (-26%) realized −$2,094 · open −$526
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%28W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$346
14 days+$346
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$568
sports 33% −$313
politics 18% −$1,331
world 5% +$13
crypto 5% −$365
culture 2% +$65
economics 1% −$117
tech 1% −$51
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +86.0% +68.3% 67% 67% +102.6%
≤30d 7 +7.8% -2.5% 43% 43% -18.2%
≤90d 9 +23.5% +11.7% 44% 44% -14.9%
all 122 -32.2% -38.7% 23% 21% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 21% -31.8%
10% -44.5% 19% -38.3%
15% -49.9% 17% -44.3%
20% -54.8% 17% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$59 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized−$2,094
Unrealized−$526
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses28 / 94
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions25
Markets (closed)122 / 147
History coverage695d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 86¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 33¢ 33¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $57 $46 −$11 (-19%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 29¢ 17¢ $58 $33 −$25 (-43%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day? No 61¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+64%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 1¢ $251 $5 −$247 (-98%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $57 $3 −$54 (-94%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $42 $1 −$41 (-98%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-95%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-97%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-97%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $77 +$202 +263%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $178 +$169 +95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $260 −$250 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 02 $203 +$196 +96%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $204 −$200 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? May 06 $56 +$144 +257%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $113 −$113 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025? Mar 11 $21 +$79 +376%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? Mar 11 $72 +$1,174 +1641%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $79 +$21 +27%
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025? Dec 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Hijab" or "Omar" this week? (December 1 - 7) Dec 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Hellhole" or "Third World" this week? (December 1 - 7) Dec 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Nov 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 1 - 7) Nov 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025? Nov 30 $44 −$12 -27%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Cup? Nov 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Nov 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27? Nov 27 $19 +$81 +426%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Houston Cougars Nov 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Nov 25 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Nov 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougars Nov 25 $186 −$186 -100%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? Nov 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Nov 24 $60 +$2 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Nov 24 $275 +$225 +82%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $170 −$170 -100%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? Nov 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Nov 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Hawaii vs. UNLV Nov 22 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m? Nov 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Nov 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "Wicked: For Good" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomat Nov 21 $22 +$124 +552%
Will Bill Ackman say "Pulte" during the X Space event on November 18? Nov 19 $370 +$198 +54%
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? Nov 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Nov 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $200 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 33¢ $51 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 33¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 76¢ $278 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $26 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $51 8d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 10d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 10d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $76 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 16d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 43¢ $103 23d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY No 43¢ $205 29d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 46¢ $204 29d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 29d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 57¢ $57 81d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 56¢ $56 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 87d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.93 · official $765.93 (match) · 648 history records