Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xce2d…8b81 crypto 389 markets active 10h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$989 (-4%) realized −$962 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate29%108W / 265L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$203
14 days−$850
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$494
other 25% +$1,159
sports 9% −$1,784
world 0% −$17
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -18.1% -25.9% 32% 26% -40.9%
≤30d 74 +12.4% +1.7% 34% 28% -14.6%
≤90d 118 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 31% -14.9%
all 373 -29.2% -36.0% 29% 19% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 19% -13.7%
10% -42.1% 16% -21.9%
15% -47.7% 14% -29.5%
20% -52.8% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$22 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$962
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses108 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions16
Markets (closed)373 / 389
History coverage236d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $17 $53 +$36 (+215%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in June? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $21 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 47¢ $9 $16 +$6 (+68%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-62%)
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+180%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-99%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$4 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$5 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 17 $31 −$24 -77%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 17 $33 −$12 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$13 +250%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 +$4 +180%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $11 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$18 -77%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$29 -71%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$7 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $24 −$2 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $21 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $270 −$270 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 06 $55 +$37 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$11 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 05 $31 −$30 -95%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 6? Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $21 −$7 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 4¢ $7 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $11 11h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 15¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $7 13h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $0 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 6¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 7¢ $11 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 4¢ $9 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $20 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $5 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $11 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $16 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $11 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $3 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $3 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 12¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 10¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 11¢ $11 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.58 · official $227.09 (match) · 1147 history records