Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce2b…08fa
sports · 1260 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$39,170 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39,086 · open −$76
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,785
Realized−$39,086
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses653 / 736
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,413
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1389 / 1260
History coverage197d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 15 History 1389 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,708
7 days−$32,708
14 days−$34,537
30 days−$33,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $858 $851 −$6 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $696 $750 +$54 (+8%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 73¢ 75¢ $694 $713 +$19 (+3%)
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $492 $485 −$7 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 70¢ $450 $453 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 58¢ $400 $390 −$10 (-2%)
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 52¢ $300 $284 −$16 (-5%)
Raphinha: 3+ shots Yes 64¢ 34¢ $314 $164 −$149 (-48%)
Michel Aebischer: 1+ assists Yes 24¢ 50¢ $77 $158 +$81 (+106%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 40¢ $139 $141 +$2 (+1%)
Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists Yes 36¢ 55¢ $79 $121 +$42 (+53%)
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 28¢ $150 $111 −$39 (-26%)
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Yes 29¢ 24¢ $88 $71 −$17 (-19%)
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Yes 48¢ 49¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists Yes 26¢ 15¢ $77 $45 −$32 (-42%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 45¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Yes 58¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Seahawks 64¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup Day 2? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $525 $0 −$525 (-100%)
Will the Dallas Mavericks win more than 41.5 regular season games in 2025–26? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19? Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28? Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup Day 2? Jun 13 $350 −$393 -112%
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win more than 41.5 regular season games in 2 Jun 13 $750 −$750 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-13? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Inter vs. Lazio: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $0 −$224 -47764%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 United Jun 13 $208 −$208 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-23? Jun 13 $350 −$350 -100%
Spread: SF (-1.5) Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 s Jun 13 $635 −$654 -103%
Will Genoa win on 2025-11-03? Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Newcastle vs. Fulham: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? Jun 13 $850 −$850 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-09-21? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
US Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Jaume Munar Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-02? Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win more than 46.5 regular season games in Jun 13 $679 −$684 -101%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-26? Jun 13 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Jun 13 $173 −$272 -157%
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29? Jun 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-18? Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? Jun 13 $685 −$685 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? Jun 13 $340 −$340 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $435 −$435 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-13? Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Manchester United vs. Everton: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $378 −$378 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-21? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $284 −$284 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-08-21? Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $336 −$336 -100%
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) Jun 13 $80 −$104 -129%
Clippers vs. Warriors Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Falcons vs. Panthers Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Azerba Jun 13 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-06? Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? Jun 13 $350 −$350 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-13? Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-08-28? Jun 13 $236 −$272 -115%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-04? Jun 13 $70 −$148 -210%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-22? Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-08-24? Jun 13 $275 −$275 -100%
Spread: Chelsea (-1.5) Jun 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$15,547
other 29% +$9,161
world 1% +$1,026
culture 0% +$254
tech 0% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $454 17m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $2 30m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $13 31m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $6 37m
Michel Aebischer: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $79 1h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $120 1h
Raphinha: 3+ shots BUY Yes 64¢ $317 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $405 2h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $304 2h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $80 2h
Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $79 2h
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $90 2h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $153 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $355 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $303 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $254 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $466 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $855 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $254 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $857 24h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 63¢ $254 28h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? SELL Yes 72¢ $680 30h
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $496 35h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $654 46h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 45¢ $183 46h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $355 47h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 57¢ $355 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $557 2d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,366 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -90.6% -91.5% 6% 6% -83.7%
≤30d 274 -52.4% -57.0% 25% 25% -45.7%
≤90d 611 -24.8% -32.0% 39% 39% -23.7%
all 1389 -12.4% -20.7% 47% 46% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 46% -14.9%
10% -28.3% 45% -23.1%
15% -35.2% 40% -30.5%
20% -41.6% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,784.77 · official $4,784.77 (match) · 3500 history records