Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xce26…9d2c crypto 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$93 (+24%) realized +$94 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%66W / 96L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$91
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.4% -21.7% 50% 29% -25.4%
≤30d 14 -13.4% -21.7% 50% 29% -25.4%
≤90d 162 +19.4% +8.0% 41% 31% -6.3%
all 162 +19.4% +8.0% 41% 31% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 31% -6.3%
10% -2.3% 26% -15.3%
15% -11.8% 22% -23.5%
20% -20.4% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses66 / 96
Open positions3
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage83d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 28 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 28 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 28 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 28 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 28 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 27 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 27 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 27 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$4 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 27 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 27 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 17h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.45 · official $12.45 (match) · 515 history records