Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce26…8e06 sports 398 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19,772 (-7%) realized −$19,701 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%219W / 174L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$694per market
Trades / day112.9pace
Fees−$3,286est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,836
other 5% −$3,601
crypto 0% −$137
world 0% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -2.9% -12.2% 55% 45% -10.3%
≤30d 393 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 43% -12.0%
≤90d 393 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 43% -12.0%
all 393 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 43% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 43% -12.0%
10% -19.2% 35% -20.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.0% 26% -28.1%
20% -34.1% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$256 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$652
Realized−$19,701
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses219 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$3,286
Open positions5
Markets (closed)393 / 398
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$694
Trades / day112.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Under 84¢ 84¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 66¢ 48¢ $198 $146 −$52 (-27%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 40¢ $135 $122 −$14 (-10%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $124 $121 −$3 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$446 +291%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $348 −$348 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $117 +$83 +70%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$70 +138%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $113 +$387 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $167 +$133 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $310 +$90 +29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $364 +$236 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $329 +$271 +82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$205 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $465 −$465 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $538 −$538 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,154 −$1,014 -88%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $116 +$93 +80%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1,625 −$125 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $720 −$720 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $453 +$147 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $379 −$79 -21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $259 −$259 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,740 −$2,740 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,938 +$810 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $750 +$250 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $81 +$219 +270%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 14 $42 +$98 +236%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $178 +$22 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $580 +$420 +72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $210 −$80 -38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $177 +$153 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $133 −$133 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $214 +$286 +134%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $790 −$790 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6,140 +$860 +14%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5,367 +$398 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $99 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $169 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $125 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $9 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $19 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $23 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $117 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $26 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $98 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $135 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $310 8h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $53 8h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $2 8h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $3 8h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $0 8h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $1 8h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $2 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $167 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $348 10h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $113 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $364 10h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 66¢ $198 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $162 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $43 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $167 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $94 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $267 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.00 · official $652.00 (match) · 3500 history records