Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce21…20ac world 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$4
other 8% +$1
sports 5% +$7
weather 2% −$4
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 13% -10.1%
≤90d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 13% -10.1%
all 25 +3.4% -6.5% 48% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 12% -9.6%
10% -15.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -23.6% 4% -26.2%
20% -31.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage486d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $74 −$5 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $7 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $9 +$1 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $38 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Dec 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Canada' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4? Mar 04 $14 −$4 -29%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Mar 03 $7 +$7 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $42 17m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $3 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $8 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $9 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $4 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $2 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $10 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $33 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $28 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $4 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $40 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $8 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $47 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $47 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records