Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce20…fa07 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$149 (-2%) realized −$147 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate73%35W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$122
14 days+$171
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +60.5% +45.2% 100% 100% +45.2%
≤30d 5 +37.9% +24.7% 80% 80% +25.2%
≤90d 48 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 62% -11.3%
all 48 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 62% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 62% -11.3%
10% -15.6% 33% -19.8%
15% -23.8% 19% -27.6%
20% -31.2% 12% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$157 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses35 / 13
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage73d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$148 +146%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 25 $101 +$23 +23%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $101 +$76 +75%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $152 +$148 +97%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Red Star FC vs. Rodez Aveyron Football: O/U 3.5 May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 10 $101 +$74 +73%
OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5 May 02 $40 +$23 +57%
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5 May 02 $101 +$46 +46%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 May 01 $1,004 +$171 +17%
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 May 01 $101 −$100 -99%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $101 $0 -0%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $503 +$137 +27%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $1,009 +$440 +44%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $100 +$14 +14%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $100 +$24 +24%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $83 +$20 +24%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $100 +$20 +20%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $500 +$106 +21%
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $300 −$299 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $1,000 −$995 -100%
FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $100 −$41 -41%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $100 −$10 -10%
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 Apr 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $100 +$12 +12%
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $100 +$23 +23%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $100 +$13 +13%
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $100 +$23 +23%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $150 +$22 +14%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $100 −$44 -44%
FK Orenburg vs. FK Lokomotiv Moskva: O/U 3.5 Apr 18 $150 +$28 +18%
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 18 $100 −$47 -47%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Luton Town FC vs. Northampton Town FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Southampton FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Genoa CFC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $100 +$20 +20%
Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $100 +$23 +23%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $18 +$2 +12%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $100 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $101 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 79¢ $101 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 9d
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 27d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 31d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 33d
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 34d
Red Star FC vs. Rodez Aveyron Football: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 39d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 42d
OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $63 49d
OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $40 49d
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 49d
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 49d
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,175 50d
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1,004 50d
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 50d
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $100 51d
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 51d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $640 52d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $503 52d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,009 53d
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $500 54d
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $300 54d
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $1,000 55d
FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 46¢ $59 55d
FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $100 55d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 56d
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $100 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.54 · official $97.54 (match) · 91 history records