Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce20…deaf crypto 474 markets active 5d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$469 (-6%) realized −$469 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate78%372W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$417
crypto 11% −$52
weather 0% −$16
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -28.7% -35.5% 25% 12% -17.8%
≤30d 310 -4.6% -13.7% 85% 13% -14.6%
≤90d 467 -8.3% -17.1% 79% 19% -14.9%
all 474 -7.5% -16.3% 78% 20% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 20% -14.9%
10% -24.3% 13% -23.0%
15% -31.6% 9% -30.5%
20% -38.3% 6% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$469
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses372 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)474 / 474
History coverage114d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 474 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$7 +140%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$6 +97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $524 −$524 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $33 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $43 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $35 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $80 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $108 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $74 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $39 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $46 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 03 $122 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 03 $127 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 03 $70 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $127 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $43 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 1042 history records