Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce1e…d671 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-23%) realized −$110 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$80
crypto 15% −$110
sports 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-75.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -90.6%
≤30d 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -90.6%
≤90d 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -90.6%
all 3 -73.3% -75.8% 0% 0% -90.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.8% 0% -90.6%
10% -78.1% 0% -91.5%
15% -80.2% 0% -92.3%
20% -82.2% 0% -93.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$37 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $209 $208 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 36m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 10¢ $13 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $102 41m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 11¢ $16 44m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 48m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 50m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 50m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 51m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 52m
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 56m
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 57m
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 57m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.57 · official $614.57 (match) · 15 history records