Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce1d…0fb5 crypto 866 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$228 (-2%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate73%630W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 16% -8.6%
≤30d 225 +5.8% -4.3% 68% 22% -10.4%
≤90d 866 -3.2% -12.4% 73% 22% -12.5%
all 866 -3.2% -12.4% 73% 22% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 22% -12.5%
10% -20.8% 13% -20.9%
15% -28.4% 9% -28.5%
20% -35.4% 8% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses630 / 236
Open positions0
Markets (closed)866 / 866
History coverage86d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 866 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$9 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $29 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $29 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2074 history records