Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce1d…1b9b other 196 markets active 4h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 204d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,970 (+3%) realized −$23,491 · open +$52,461
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%99W / 83L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,502per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$178,681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$10,656
30 days+$1,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$8,040
world 32% +$24,982
politics 17% +$1,098
crypto 7% +$8,428
sports 1% +$4,174
economics 0% +$396
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -20.3% -27.9% 60% 20% -8.7%
≤90d 74 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 24% -13.3%
all 182 -12.4% -20.8% 54% 36% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 36% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 25% -20.5%
15% -35.3% 16% -28.2%
20% -41.6% 8% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$3,907) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,132 vs −$1,628 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$178,681
Realized−$23,491
Unrealized+$52,461
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses99 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions14
Markets (closed)182 / 196
History coverage204d ⚠
Avg bet$4,502
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $43,262 $60,109 +$16,847 (+39%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 92¢ $27,132 $43,455 +$16,323 (+60%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 53¢ 85¢ $18,962 $30,318 +$11,356 (+60%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 94¢ $11,150 $16,065 +$4,915 (+44%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $11,264 $11,320 +$56 (+0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $9,226 $9,223 −$3 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 97¢ $2,400 $3,862 +$1,462 (+61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 96¢ $820 $1,929 +$1,109 (+135%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $1,180 $1,540 +$360 (+31%)
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 94¢ 98¢ $227 $237 +$10 (+4%)
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? No 92¢ 96¢ $212 $219 +$7 (+3%)
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? No 87¢ 95¢ $147 $160 +$13 (+9%)
Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 96¢ 99¢ $152 $158 +$5 (+4%)
Hurupay FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 98¢ 99¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $48,093 +$10,303 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $14,730 +$270 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $5,417 +$83 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $3,403 +$217 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3,933 +$40 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $3,570 −$983 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $29,350 +$5,150 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $1,230 −$654 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $625 −$561 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $15,516 −$12,715 -82%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $5,185 +$41 +1%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $28,001 +$431 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $36,668 +$14,332 +39%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? May 08 $1,078 +$396 +37%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 04 $1,617 +$7 +0%
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? May 04 $21 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $79 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $12,270 −$8,750 -71%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $15,946 +$4,705 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $3,505 +$213 +6%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $2,123 +$396 +19%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $802 +$327 +41%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $7,672 +$808 +10%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 26 $221 −$174 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $11,582 −$10,802 -93%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $936 +$221 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9,112 +$110 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 23 $873 +$227 +26%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Apr 19 $8,662 +$271 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $42,340 +$16,542 +39%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $13,195 −$13,038 -99%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $15,450 −$15,326 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 11 $808 −$203 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $1,174 +$19 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $1,153 −$86 -7%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $28,897 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 08 $1,077 +$97 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $4,813 +$2,636 +55%
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30? Apr 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by March 15? Apr 02 $2,948 −$2,908 -99%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Apr 02 $527 −$527 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Apr 02 $666 −$666 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Apr 02 $696 −$696 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Apr 02 $313 −$313 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $289 −$289 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 01 $4,288 +$1,605 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $76 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $200 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $124 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $199 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,620 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $186 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $370 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $360 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $154 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $161 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $460 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $529 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $54 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $162 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $54 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,726 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $216 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $0 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $108 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $10,006 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $259 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $676 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $900 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $850 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $800 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $286 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178,680.89 · official $178,680.89 (match) · 3500 history records