Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce18…7b9e crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%50W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 50 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses50 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage33d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? Jun 22 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 22? Jun 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 21? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? Jun 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 15? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 10? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 11? Jun 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 8? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 3? Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 1? May 31 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30? May 29 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 30? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 30? May 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 28? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 27? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on May 25? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24? May 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 22? May 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 22? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 22? May 21 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $105 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $104 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $78 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $77 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $94 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $104 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $97 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $81 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $75 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $104 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $104 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $104 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $104 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $104 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.54 · official $104.54 (match) · 136 history records