Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce16…ecb5 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 21% −$2
crypto 9% +$2
politics 7% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -13.7% -21.9% 22% 0% -10.7%
all 32 -6.8% -15.6% 41% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 3% -10.0%
10% -23.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage470d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $34 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $33 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $13 −$3 -23%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 +$2 +15%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $32 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $18 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $15 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 36h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $4 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $15 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $18 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $34 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $6 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $20 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $7 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $10 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $23 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $36 32d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 188d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? SELL No 99¢ $10 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records