Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce16…243b crypto 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+4%) realized +$99 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%133W / 125L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$10
14 days+$11
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$23
sports 24% +$166
other 13% −$52
politics 12% −$3
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% −$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 42% -10.5%
≤30d 249 +6.5% -3.6% 52% 48% -7.6%
≤90d 249 +6.5% -3.6% 52% 48% -7.6%
all 258 +5.2% -4.8% 52% 47% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 47% -6.8%
10% -13.9% 45% -15.7%
15% -22.2% 40% -23.9%
20% -29.8% 35% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses133 / 125
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)258 / 264
History coverage341d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+13%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 59¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+70%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? No 9¢ 12¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+33%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 +$13 +102%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$8 +756%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $7 +$5 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $11 −$11 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +115%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +194%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +53%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $27 39m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 39m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 47¢ $1 57m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $34 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 94¢ $16 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 71¢ $5 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $2 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $5 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.18 · official $71.18 (match) · 604 history records