Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xce14…e16a other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,569 (-2%) realized −$1,571 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$809per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$67
politics 35% −$42
sports 9% −$1,452
world 4% −$7
economics 3% −$8
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -3.7% -12.9% 4% 0% -11.7%
all 125 -2.2% -11.5% 18% 12% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 12% -10.9%
10% -20.0% 12% -19.5%
15% -27.7% 10% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,062) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$781
Realized−$1,571
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage163d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $568 $570 +$2 (+0%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $211 $211 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $220 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $225 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $933 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,913 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,157 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,849 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $326 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,537 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $695 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? May 19 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $873 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $894 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $633 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $537 −$1 -0%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $3,058 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,346 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,406 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,490 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $3,756 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,226 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,388 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,825 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,306 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,047 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,307 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,304 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $219 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 3h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 43h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 44h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $207 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $208 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $238 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $238 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $319 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $319 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $568 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $695 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $696 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $931 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $665 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $666 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $871 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $873 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $844 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $845 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $770 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $771 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $912 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $914 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $780.63 · official $780.63 (match) · 401 history records