Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CE 0xce10…51d4 crypto 365 markets active 2h ago coverage 728d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13,970 (-7%) realized −$13,871 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate64%216W / 119L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$19
14 days+$66
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$14,014
politics 2% −$274
world 1% +$28
other 1% +$162
finance 0% −$7
tech 0% +$12
economics 0% +$54
weather 0% +$3
culture 0% +$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 95 -3.3% -12.5% 78% 3% -14.4%
≤90d 125 -3.1% -12.3% 78% 9% -11.0%
all 335 -11.8% -20.2% 64% 24% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 24% -16.2%
10% -27.8% 18% -24.2%
15% -34.8% 11% -31.5%
20% -41.2% 8% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$613) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$312 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

728d coverage
Net worth$1,400
Realized−$13,871
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses216 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)335 / 365
History coverage728d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 93¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 92¢ 95¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 97¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Juan Rey advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral electio Jun 08 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 07 $50 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $360? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $230? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $52 +$5 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 05 $53 +$22 +42%
Will Mike Thompson advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 05 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 05 $50 +$3 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $71 −$68 -96%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Ko Jun 04 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 04 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Jason Gibbs advance from the CA-27 primary election? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Lincoln II advance from the CA-13 primary election? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Lee Cheol-woo win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 03 $208 +$12 +6%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Michael BlackWolf be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $157 −$150 -95%
Will voter turnout be at least 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 02 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $24 −$23 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 02 $53 +$22 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $155 −$150 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $53 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 25h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $49 34h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 96¢ $50 7d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 97¢ $50 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $50 8d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $50 8d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 9d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $50 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $50 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $50 10d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 94¢ $50 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 13d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 13d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 93¢ $50 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 95¢ $50 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 37¢ $58 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 31¢ $52 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 42¢ $75 13d
Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral electio BUY No 92¢ $50 13d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $360? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 14d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $230? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,399.87 · official $1,399.88 (match) · 1330 history records