Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CE 0xce0f…c2be other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%27W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$10
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$19
crypto 38% +$24
sports 9% +$7
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.3% -7.4% 69% 57% -5.4%
≤30d 39 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 54% -5.3%
≤90d 39 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 54% -5.3%
all 39 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 54% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 54% -5.3%
10% -17.0% 49% -14.4%
15% -25.0% 41% -22.7%
20% -32.3% 26% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +108%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$5 +88%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$9 +77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 $0 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -81%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $35 −$30 -86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $20 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.53 · official $17.54 (match) · 118 history records