Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xce0e…f15c crypto 422 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1806 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$3,539 (+1%) realized +$781 · open +$2,758
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%51W / 371L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day1805.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,696
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1806 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 422 +87.7% +69.8% 12% 7% -9.6%
≤30d 422 +87.7% +69.8% 12% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 422 +87.7% +69.8% 12% 7% -9.6%
all 422 +87.7% +69.8% 12% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1805.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.8% 7% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +53.6% 5% -18.2%
15% +38.8% 5% -26.1%
20% +25.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +47% → late +128% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6,150
Realized+$781
Unrealized+$2,758
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses51 / 371
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)422 / 422
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$602
Trades / day1805.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $302 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $152 $300 +$149 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $148 $294 +$146 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $123 $253 +$130 (+106%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $123 $244 +$121 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 24¢ 50¢ $115 $244 +$129 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $122 $242 +$120 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $116 $229 +$113 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $47 $93 +$46 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+106%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 21¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+141%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 23¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$7 +2921%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2666%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2704%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +3073%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2584%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $87 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $123 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2672%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$8 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $110 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$8 +1239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2779%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $107 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2826%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $77 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $71 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $135 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $146 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $147 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $606 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $606 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $606 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $600 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,150.10 · official $6,147.29 (match) · 3500 history records