Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce0c…d839 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$393 (+4%) realized +$531 · open −$138
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,958per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$762
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -29.1% -35.9% 0% 0% -31.8%
≤30d 3 -29.1% -35.9% 0% 0% -31.8%
≤90d 3 -29.1% -35.9% 0% 0% -31.8%
all 3 -29.1% -35.9% 0% 0% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 0% -31.8%
10% -42.0% 0% -38.3%
15% -47.6% 0% -44.3%
20% -52.8% 0% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$208 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized+$531
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1,958
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,054 $1,012 −$42 (-4%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $193 $97 −$97 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $723 −$33 -5%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,711 −$539 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$51 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 59m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $689 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $690 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $723 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $722 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $796 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $797 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $804 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $804 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $912 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $912 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,036 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,035 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,170 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,171 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $102 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,609 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,611 6h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.73 · official $1,108.73 (match) · 54 history records