Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce0b…b9ee other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+13%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$4
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.6% -23.7% 50% 33% +15.3%
≤30d 6 -15.6% -23.7% 50% 33% +15.3%
≤90d 6 -15.6% -23.7% 50% 33% +15.3%
all 6 -15.6% -23.7% 50% 33% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 33% +15.3%
10% -31.0% 33% +4.3%
15% -37.6% 33% -5.8%
20% -43.8% 17% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)6 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.93 · official $12.93 (match) · 27 history records