Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce0a…2a11
sports · 206 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$117 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$173 · open −$138
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$138
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses111 / 73
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions22
Markets (closed)184 / 206
History coverage99d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 22 History 184 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$89
14 days+$39
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 43¢ 58¢ $24 $32 +$9 (+36%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 72¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 49¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will m0NESY have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Yes 49¢ 20¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 19¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-65%)
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the IEM Cologne Major 2026 playoffs? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? No 69¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? No 85¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will s1mple retire by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? No 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026? No 92¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 60¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 10¢ 0¢ $110 $1 −$109 (-100%)
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? No 80¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 9¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 74¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $91 +$17 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $114 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $182 +$84 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $118 +$67 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +124%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $163 −$15 -9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 −$10 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $82 −$41 -50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$44 +72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$13 +66%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $74 +$8 +11%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $30 +$24 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Legacy qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$3 +34%
Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +36%
Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$23 +74%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Will FUT qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$167
other 15% −$138
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 6¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 9¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 9¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 9¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 11¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 12¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 14¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 15¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 85¢ $148 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 85¢ $120 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 5¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 6¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 8¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 9¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 8¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 7¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 37¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 37¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 87¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 31¢ $103 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 11¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 15¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 15¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +21.2% +9.6% 64% 64% -2.2%
≤30d 97 +13.8% +3.0% 64% 64% -10.4%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 57% -14.8%
all 184 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 57% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 57% -13.8%
10% -18.3% 52% -22.0%
15% -26.2% 44% -29.6%
20% -33.5% 28% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.00 · official $138.00 (match) · 462 history records