Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xce08…28bd other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 853d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,662 (+8%) realized +$11,405 · open +$257
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%74W / 72L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$939per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 853d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$1,079
world 20% +$5,459
other 16% +$1,451
crypto 4% −$227
economics 1% −$730
tech 1% −$22
sports 0% +$68
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -54.0% -58.4% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤30d 13 -25.2% -32.4% 15% 15% -13.7%
≤90d 32 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 19% -1.0%
all 146 +7.8% -2.5% 51% 40% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 40% -6.6%
10% -11.8% 26% -15.5%
15% -20.3% 15% -23.7%
20% -28.1% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$524) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$160 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

853d coverage
Net worth$4,480
Realized+$11,405
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses74 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)146 / 154
History coverage853d
Avg bet$939
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,274 +$274 (+27%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $1,350 $1,127 −$223 (-16%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $600 $618 +$18 (+3%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $544 $582 +$38 (+7%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 54¢ 66¢ $270 $328 +$58 (+21%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 87¢ 100¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+15%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 48¢ 63¢ $159 $209 +$50 (+31%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4,092 −$607 -15%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $100 −$9 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $100 −$4 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,246 −$451 -20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $524 −$508 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $409 −$90 -22%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 26 $1,062 +$1,458 +137%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $200 −$89 -44%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,683 +$278 +6%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026? May 14 $188 +$13 +7%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 13 $1,055 +$8 +1%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? May 13 $29 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1,000 +$1,598 +160%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 23 $510 +$10 +2%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 08 $1,500 +$111 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $100 +$39 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $75 −$34 -45%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 07 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $50 −$20 -41%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Apr 07 $250 +$16 +6%
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 02 $60 +$6 +10%
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $150 +$49 +32%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 19 $163 −$111 -68%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $250 +$60 +24%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 13 $250 −$188 -75%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Feb 28 $260 −$133 -51%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 25 $25 +$18 +72%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $145 +$82 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 12 $19 +$10 +52%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Feb 12 $180 +$23 +13%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? Feb 12 $154 +$41 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 11 $50 +$6 +12%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 03 $100 +$27 +27%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 03 $100 +$22 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $505 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $505 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $253 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $212 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $6 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $7 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $4 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $54 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $20 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $51 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $93 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 8h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,010 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $475 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $225 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,479.90 · official $4,480.56 (match) · 1010 history records