Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce07…5c3c
weather · 519 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$2,753 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,753 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses306 / 213
Open positions0
Markets (closed)519 / 519
History coverage80d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 519 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$392
14 days+$733
30 days+$1,938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31? No 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or higher on April 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 25? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 6? No 27¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 22? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 14? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? No 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 29? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 29? No 69¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 27? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$25 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$12 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$63 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$25 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$28 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$15 +280%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$31 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$15 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $34 +$22 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $76 −$24 -31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $66 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $58 −$57 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$30 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$29 +419%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$4 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 +$11 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $72 −$37 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$19 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$16 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$15 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $69 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$16 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $115 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $87 +$21 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$17 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $59 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$5 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $70 +$21 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $49 +$21 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $40 +$50 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,758
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $50 30m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $39 33m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $37 34m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL Yes 71¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $57 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 50¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 50¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $55 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +58.7% +43.6% 65% 57% +9.2%
≤30d 257 +56.7% +41.8% 64% 56% +5.3%
≤90d 519 +41.8% +28.3% 59% 52% +4.9%
all 519 +41.8% +28.3% 59% 52% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.3% 52% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here +16.0% 38% -5.1%
15% +4.8% 30% -14.3%
20% -5.5% 25% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.14 · official $0.00 · 2551 history records