Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce05…13c5
crypto · 1395 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,520 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$456 · open −$64
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized−$456
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses802 / 591
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1393 / 1395
History coverage13d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day165.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 1393 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$1,355
14 days−$456
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Up 97¢ 46¢ $120 $56 −$64 (-53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 25¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$12 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $121 +$16 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $108 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$436
other 0% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $120 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $121 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $108 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $120 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 473 -17.1% -25.0% 49% 43% -27.0%
≤30d 1393 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 53% -12.0%
≤90d 1393 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 53% -12.0%
all 1393 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 53% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover165.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 53% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 39% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 19% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.60 · official $56.10 (match) · 3500 history records