Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce03…d9a4
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit12%
Chart Positions 6 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+614%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 +$13 +435%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 87% −$6
sports 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 76¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+850.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +950.0% +850.0% 50% 50% -77.5%
≤30d 2 +950.0% +850.0% 50% 50% -77.5%
≤90d 2 +950.0% +850.0% 50% 50% -77.5%
all 2 +950.0% +850.0% 50% 50% -77.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +850.0% 50% -77.5%
10% +759.1% 50% -79.7%
15% +676.1% 50% -81.6%
20% +600.0% 50% -83.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.65 · official $16.22 (match) · 9 history records