Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcdff…24dd sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$492 (-23%) realized −$495 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 223d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$574
other 6% +$82
crypto 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +58.5% +43.4% 78% 78% +37.7%
≤30d 9 +58.5% +43.4% 78% 78% +37.7%
≤90d 9 +58.5% +43.4% 78% 78% +37.7%
all 10 +42.6% +29.0% 70% 70% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.0% 70% -31.4%
10% +16.7% 70% -37.9%
15% +5.4% 60% -43.9%
20% -4.9% 60% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$363 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$495
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage223d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 31¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$18 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $294 +$216 +74%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $349 +$119 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $0 $0 +200%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $212 +$137 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $130 +$82 +64%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $294 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $349 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $212 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $0 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $212 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $130 16h
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $350 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $700 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.00 · official $93.00 (match) · 23 history records