Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdfb…f641 crypto 1067 markets active 15h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$924 (-12%) realized −$924 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%540W / 527L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$32
14 days−$52
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$482
weather 17% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 66% -5.5%
≤30d 718 -8.8% -17.5% 49% 47% -12.9%
≤90d 1067 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 46% -15.4%
all 1067 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 46% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 46% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 36% -23.5%
15% -33.1% 24% -30.9%
20% -39.7% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$924
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses540 / 527
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1067 / 1067
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1067 Trades
no open positions (360 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records