Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcdfb…6278 crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate74%76W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$67
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -16.3% -24.3% 65% 44% -11.6%
≤30d 103 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 50% -10.9%
≤90d 103 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 50% -10.9%
all 103 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 50% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 50% -10.9%
10% -24.1% 28% -19.4%
15% -31.4% 19% -27.2%
20% -38.1% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$27 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses76 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage28d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 67¢ 66¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $384 +$57 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $230 −$107 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $128 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $113 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $255 +$33 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $178 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $212 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $78 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $114 +$43 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $73 +$27 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $63 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $130 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$6 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $36 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $49 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $86 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $116 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $135 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $22.92 · 374 history records