Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcdfb…980c sports 705 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54,380 (-7%) realized −$54,061 · open −$319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%337W / 367L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,173per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$4,524est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$439
7 days+$439
14 days−$767
30 days−$18,266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$54,333
politics 0% −$606
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 57% +2.9%
≤30d 110 -42.8% -48.3% 31% 31% -36.8%
≤90d 381 -25.0% -32.1% 38% 38% -17.6%
all 704 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 48% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 48% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 47% -23.6%
15% -30.8% 45% -31.0%
20% -37.6% 39% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,426) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$934 vs −$1,006 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$54,061
Unrealized−$319
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses337 / 367
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$4,524
Open positions1
Markets (closed)704 / 705
History coverage229d
Avg bet$1,173
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Cloud Rising 16¢ 0¢ $320 $1 −$319 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $382 +$179 +47%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $685 +$514 +75%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $849 +$487 +57%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $556 +$297 +53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $616 −$52 -8%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $486 −$486 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $138 −$138 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 +$19 +172%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,590 −$1,479 -93%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,118 +$477 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $820 +$302 +37%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,233 +$264 +21%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $469 −$430 -92%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $697 +$289 +41%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $463 +$241 +52%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $64 −$63 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $23 −$22 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $241 −$229 -95%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $848 −$606 -72%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $403 −$403 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $514 −$514 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $335 +$183 +55%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $757 −$744 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $742 −$742 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $706 +$607 +86%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $391 +$333 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $500 +$824 +165%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $1,116 −$1,101 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $1,426 +$710 +50%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $725 +$702 +97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $376 +$350 +93%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $240 +$136 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $287 −$47 -16%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $589 −$115 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $689 −$677 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $399 +$291 +73%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $54 −$52 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $38 +$17 +44%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $10 +$8 +84%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $21 −$11 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $100 51m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $0 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $1 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $1 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $14 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $0 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $55 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $70 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $2 52m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $77 53m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $562 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $212 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $170 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $1,199 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 57¢ $318 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 57¢ $287 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 57¢ $79 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $1,336 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $255 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $5 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $588 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $853 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $233 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $220 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 64¢ $323 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $10 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 2846 history records