Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdfa…d143 politics 385 markets active 2h ago coverage 724d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,997 (-2%) realized −$3,313 · open +$316
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%117W / 244L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,160
7 days+$1,207
14 days+$2,427
30 days+$3,836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$981
other 27% −$1,246
sports 14% +$3,119
crypto 10% −$3,073
world 7% −$326
tech 1% −$118
finance 0% −$141
economics 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -91.0% -91.8% 3% 3% +3.5%
≤30d 36 -62.4% -66.0% 17% 17% +16.7%
≤90d 121 -38.1% -44.0% 27% 23% -24.9%
all 361 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 30% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 30% -11.7%
10% -29.4% 28% -20.2%
15% -36.2% 27% -27.9%
20% -42.4% 24% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$264 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

724d coverage
Net worth$2,727
Realized−$3,313
Unrealized+$316
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses117 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions24
Markets (closed)361 / 385
History coverage724d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $500 $925 +$425 (+85%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $808 $894 +$85 (+11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $134 $140 +$6 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $114 $129 +$15 (+13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $70 $85 +$15 (+22%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $124 $84 −$39 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $72 $79 +$7 (+10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $85 $62 −$22 (-26%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $60 −$19 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $67 $58 −$9 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $57 $49 −$7 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $46 $30 −$16 (-35%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $12 −$47 (-79%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-75%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $27 $4 −$22 (-83%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,417 +$6,160 +180%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 −$250 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Trump say "Drone" during Coast Guard event? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Mars" at The Villages on May 1? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" at The Villages on May 1? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Coast Guard event? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Coast Guard event? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1? Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Rayan Cherki win English Premier League Player of the Month for A Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $560 −$560 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 14 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $857 −$843 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $288 +$155 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $732 +$908 +124%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,290 +$1,128 +34%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $513 +$282 +55%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $4 +$11 +260%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 14 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $423 +$36 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $48 +$52 +108%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 10 $303 +$123 +41%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$75 +365%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 06 $1,633 +$542 +33%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 05 $48 +$187 +388%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 +$68 +134%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $47 −$18 -37%
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $39 +$71 +182%
Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $79 +$41 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $108 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $586 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $3,417 20h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,019 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $205 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $511 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $102 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $153 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 15¢ $10 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $10 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 48¢ $1,640 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,727.11 · official $2,727.11 (match) · 1967 history records