Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdf7…ffdf world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$12
other 35% +$2
crypto 4% +$21
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -11.3%
all 38 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 11% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 11% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 5% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 5% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage468d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$4 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 −$7 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $46 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $71 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 May 06 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $4 $0 -3%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Mar 31 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL? Mar 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Mar 31 $1 $0 +11%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Mar 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 31 $7 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 29 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 +$22 +164%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $12 $0 +4%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $27 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $32 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $31 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $15 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $18 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $13 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $13 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.56 · official $28.57 (match) · 164 history records