Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcdf3…1bb5 sports 490 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,417 (-14%) realized −$27,996 · open −$421
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%185W / 303L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$2,457est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$756
7 days−$2,144
14 days−$8,419
30 days−$9,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$33,276
other 1% −$176
crypto 0% −$107
world 0% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -31.2% -37.7% 29% 29% -26.4%
≤30d 93 -33.0% -39.4% 31% 30% -40.2%
≤90d 378 -22.2% -29.6% 38% 32% -29.1%
all 488 -20.7% -28.3% 38% 33% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 33% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 30% -32.3%
15% -41.4% 28% -38.8%
20% -47.2% 25% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$526) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$366 vs −$335 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized−$27,996
Unrealized−$421
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses185 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$2,457
Open positions2
Markets (closed)488 / 490
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$403
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 40¢ 40¢ $910 $921 +$11 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 27¢ 11¢ $729 $297 −$432 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,997 +$844 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 19 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $118 +$218 +185%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$24 +68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $231 +$215 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $151 +$139 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $351 −$90 -26%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 15 $255 −$255 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $597 −$597 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $556 −$556 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $665 −$665 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $834 +$156 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,793 −$1,793 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$41 +106%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $215 −$175 -82%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $196 +$181 +92%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $48 +$61 +128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $431 +$1,362 +316%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $450 +$1,262 +280%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $300 +$297 +99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $155 +$144 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $88 +$49 +56%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $53 +$17 +31%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $109 +$128 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $149 −$149 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $164 −$164 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $492 +$277 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $51 9m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $19 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $6 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $6 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $10 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $76 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $247 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $56 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $7 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $14 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $57 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $7 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $21 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $7 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $4 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $81 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $4 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $57 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $149 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $5 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $19 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $56 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $132 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $742 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $17 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $921 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $7 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $6 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $180 10m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $15 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.32 · official $1,434.32 · 3500 history records