Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CD 0xcdf1…9a8f sports 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 784d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$214 (+4%) realized +$212 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%119W / 107L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$1
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$34
politics 31% $0
sports 15% +$159
world 8% $0
culture 7% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -17.7% -25.6% 37% 26% -15.8%
≤30d 191 +16.9% +5.7% 55% 52% +11.4%
≤90d 192 +17.4% +6.2% 56% 52% +11.9%
all 226 +17.8% +6.6% 53% 46% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 46% -6.3%
10% -3.6% 46% -15.2%
15% -12.9% 36% -23.4%
20% -21.5% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

784d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses119 / 107
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)226 / 234
History coverage784d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals No 54¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 69¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+93%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $4 $0 -9%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +147%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +32%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $7 −$1 -14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1 +$2 +165%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $9 $0 -2%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $6 +$4 +76%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Comple Jun 09 $2 +$2 +96%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 +$4 +78%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +78%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $1 +$1 +67%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster Academy vs Top Esports Challenger (BO1) - Asia Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2 $0 -2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $6 −$1 -18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 29m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $3 35m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 54¢ $3 35m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 54¢ $3 53m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 65¢ $1 3h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $6 4h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes $1 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $1 3d
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 52¢ $3 3d
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 53¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 12¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $4 3d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 84¢ $2 3d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 70¢ $4 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $3 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Spirit 20¢ $1 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $3 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 47¢ $1 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 20¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 32¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 33¢ $2 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 73¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.69 · official $20.69 (match) · 628 history records