Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CD 0xcdf1…8cd3 crypto 449 markets active 5d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$619 (+1%) realized +$624 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate73%327W / 121L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$109
14 days−$236
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$322
other 4% −$116
world 3% −$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +5.9% -4.2% 83% 50% -10.6%
≤30d 225 +3.4% -6.4% 74% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 448 +4.1% -5.8% 73% 54% -9.6%
all 448 +4.1% -5.8% 73% 54% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 54% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 33% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 21% -26.1%
20% -30.6% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$56 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$624
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses327 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)448 / 449
History coverage87d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 71¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $323 −$323 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $195 −$29 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $144 −$140 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $181 +$22 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $60 +$6 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $70 +$7 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $290 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $71 +$10 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $110 +$7 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $177 −$11 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $161 +$19 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $210 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $334 +$35 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $212 −$172 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $283 +$54 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $80 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $191 +$13 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $121 +$15 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $71 +$10 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$8 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $193 +$18 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $91 +$28 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $71 +$8 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $91 +$14 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $334 +$24 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $81 +$25 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $112 +$14 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $151 +$15 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $128 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$12 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$14 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $141 +$13 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $121 +$9 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $86 +$10 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $122 +$11 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $106 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.35 · official $15.35 (match) · 2499 history records